Last time, we were exploring why the Infinity Catalyst of human ingenuity promises a world where we will never run out of resources. We ended by observing that despite the war in Ukraine, the future will be a world at peace.
A World at Peace
Absent worldwide revival, there will always be terrorist attacks, minor skirmishes and conflicts. But full-scale war like the invasion of Ukraine is unlikely to be repeated. There are important lessons in Ukraine for our authoritarian rivels to learn.
Authoritarian police states like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea need to maintain a cozy relationship with their militaries. The only way they remain in power is by the ability to crush dissent. Lacking a free press to report on corruption and waste, these militaries are not all they seem to be. Nowhere is this more evident than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Yet at least the Russians had some combat experience from actions in Syria and Georgia. The Chinese have not been at war since a bungled invasion of Vietnam in 1979.
The Chinese would like to subject Taiwan to the rule of the Chinese Communist Party, perhaps by invasion if necessary. However, the amphibious invasion of an island like Taiwan is a far more challenging engagement than the disastrous Russian land born invasion of Ukraine. And should the Chinese attempt such folly, they will expose themselves to be just as incapable as the Russians, if not more so.
There are two possible outcomes for Taiwan, an invasion or no invasion. The probability of invasions seems less in the wake of the Russian experience in Ukraine. However, should the Chinese attack, while no doubt disruptive and tragic, the People’s Liberation Army is likely to be neutered in a similar fashion as the Russians. Either the Chinese must remain at peace or if they become ambitious, the illusion of military prowess will be exposed. The Chinese are better off making threats than acting on them, the more likely outcome. This will be annoying, but the solutions are simple.
The US used to maintain a military base in Taiwan as late as 1979. Strong US leadership could engineer an international coalition of nations to stage a contingent of soldiers on the island such that any sort of attack would immediately envelop many allied countries. No doubt the Chinese would rattle sabers over such a move, and perhaps even attempt a naval blockade of Taiwan. The US and its allies must be prepared to combine their navies to run any blockade. The gambit is peace through strength.
All these military preparations may sound troubling, but the bigger picture and the outcome will be a world at peace. And a world at peace will enable a technological renaissance to blossom.
He makes wars cease to the end of the earth …
Psalm 46:9 ESV
A Technological Renaissance
Prior to the American Civil War, most US citizens were farmers. As industrialization and urbanization trends emerged, we eventually evolved to the state today where only 1.2% of people are engaged in direct on farm employment (USDA 2022). While the number of workers engaged in farming cratered to almost nothing, the population exploded from 18.5 million in 1865 to about 340 million today. And we are vast exporters of food.
What this describes is an amazing productive accomplishment in agriculture, but it is hardly unique. Today, politicians lament the loss of manufacturing jobs. In the meantime, manufacturing output in the US is holding steady. In other words, manufacturing is experiencing the same outcome as agriculture. We are figuring out how to make things with less labor. Hello again to the Infinity Catalyst of human ingenuity.
And we’re just getting started. We’ve hardly plumbed the depths of the internet and already, artificial intelligence is here. Some experts believe AI will catapult the economy into 30% annual growth rates.1 I’m skeptical of such ambitious predictions. I think the human capacity to respond to such ongoing and rapid change is limited and will impose a ceiling to such growth. Plus, AI will have uneven adoption. There may be robotic assisted surgeries, but the surgeon is still going to be human. Childcare is still going to be the domain of in person work. Ditto skilled trades and construction. Business management, education, law, media, and sports and fitness are just a few additional areas unlikely to benefit from advances in AI.
Yet we don’t need to see skyrocketing 30% growth rates to experience unprecedented prosperity. Even sustained five to seven percent growth would be double the growth rate of this century and would result in fortunes never experienced in this country.
Longer, Better Lives
Medical miracles are either just on the horizon or already here. New treatments to combat obesity include glucagon-like peptides such as Ozempic. Focused ultrasound waves can target the brain to relieve patients suffering from tremors, including Parkinson’s disease. There’s further hope that this technology can help with depression, obsessive compulsive disorders, Alzheimer’s, ALS (Lou Gehrig’s Disease) and even opioid addiction.
Something called Crispr gene therapy can repair the genetic mutation responsible for muscular dystrophy. Other treatments hold out hope for a cure for sickle-cell anemia. There are relatively inexpensive blood tests analyzed by AI that look for patterns in blood samples to identify over 50 cancers at the earliest stages. Should cancer be found, early treatment alone already hands the patient a survival advantage. And new treatments are on the horizon. 2
None of this is new, but only a continuation and perhaps an acceleration of existing trends. Better hygiene, vaccinations and improved medicines have banished many illnesses that used to kill millions.
A World Without Limits
A recent Pew Research survey measured a growing contingent of parents indicating they were not planning on having children over concerns about the environment and climate change.3
I’m a little more optimistic.
How tragic to miss out on one of the greatest joys in life over a problem that, if it is a problem, will likely be solved like all our problems, by the Infinity Catalyst of human ingenuity. Perhaps it would have been solved sooner by one of these children if they had them. Declining populations are a greater threat to prosperity than climate change, but even population decline is likely to be solved through the implementation of robotics and automation.
The future holds more opportunity and adventure than we ever imagined.
For I know the plans I have for you,” declares the LORD, “plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future.”
Jeremiah 29:11 ESV
Notes:
- Vox How AI could explode the economy – and how it could fizzle, Dylan Matthews, 3/6/2024
- Wall Street Journal, Magic Pills are Coming, Wearable ultrasound machines and other inventions could reduce medical costs, Andy Kessler 11/26/2023).
- Pew Research Center Growing share of childless adults in U.S. don’t expect to ever have children, Anna Brown 11/19/2021.